This story is from June 20, 2012

Monsoon fears grow as Australia says El Nino likely

El Nino is the name given to an unusual warming of the ocean surface around equatorial Pacific. The phenomenon is often associated with bad southwest monsoons in India.
Monsoon fears grow as Australia says El Nino likely
NEW DELHI: Indications grew stronger of an El Nino weather pattern developing in August-September this year, with Australia’s weather bureau in its latest outlook on Tuesday saying that most climate models it surveys were pointing to the appearance of the weather anomaly.
El Nino is the name given to an unusual warming of the ocean surface around equatorial Pacific.
The phenomenon is often associated with bad southwest monsoons in India.
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said though temperatures in the tropical Pacific were still within normal range, the ocean was slowly warming up. “Climate models surveyed by the bureau suggest this warming trend will continue over the coming months, with the majority of the models indicating the tropical Pacific will approach or possibly exceed El Nino thresholds by the end of winter (August),” the update said.
The Australian update appears to favour the onset of El Nino conditions more than a forecast released on June 11 by US’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which put the chances of the phenomenon taking place at 50%. El Nino conditions are said to occur when the monthly average temperature of the ocean surface is at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal.
If an El Nino does develop in August-September, it could affect the second half of the monsoon. Sources said IMD would be factoring in this possibility when it updates this year’s monsoon prediction later this week. In its first outlook released in late April, the department predicted a normal monsoon, with rains at 99% of the long term average.
As on Tuesday, the monsoon was 25% below normal with 61% of the country’s area receiving deficient rains since June 1. Most experts, however, say the monsoon’s poor start is no indication of how it would perform in the coming months.
El Nino’s last occurrence in 2009 coincided with the worst monsoon in India in almost 40 years. Before that a weak El Nino occurred in 2002, which again was a drought year in India after 14 good monsoons.
However, all El Nino episodes are not linked with failure of the India monsoon. For instance, the strongest El Nino in recent time occurred in 1997 but it failed to depress monsoon rains that year.
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