Will poll predictions prove right this time?

PATNA: In the 2005 assembly elections, the predictions of different agencies about the results had gone off the mark. None of the three major forecasters who conducted exit polls were proved right when the results were announced.
The difference between the predicted seats and the actual seats ranged from 25 and 47. This was true for both the February 2005 and October-November 2005 elections.
The then railway minister Lalu Prasad and the then JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar had debunked the exit polls.Lalu had declared in November 2005 " Nitish ke bhagya me CM banna nahi hai."
Newspapers had carried a report on the survey conducted by the Aligarh Muslim University old Boys' Association and declared "Rabri Devi was the most favoured candidate for the office CM." Both predictions proved wrong.
AICC president Sonia Gandhi, who had shared dais with Lalu and NCP chief Sharad Pawar, had claimed, "If an alliance can work at the Centre, there is no reason why it cannot work in Bihar." The Congress, NCP and RJD had electoral alliance. This time, all the three are fighting independently.
After the results were announced, Lalu had said, "Neither the Congress nor Ram Vilas Paswan has any base in Bihar."
In the 2005 October-November elections, spurt in crime and abductions had emerged as the major poll issue. BJP stalwarts Atal Behari Vajpayee and L K Advani had raised the issue of kidnapping of children. "Mera Kislay kahan gaya?" Vajpayee had said about a kidnapped student.
Kidnapping of eight-year-old Golu, a student of D A V School from Saguna Mor in the state capital and 15-year-old Raghvendra Pratap, too, figured prominently in the campaign. Advani had gone to the extent of alleging the criminals were operating from the residence of the CM.
In the October-November 2005 elections, advisor to the Election Commission of India, K J Rao, was the most publicised person. He got more publicity on front pages during the entire poll process. Rao holding meetings with officials at district headquarters, boarding and alighting from the helicopter got good coverage. In all newspapers, Rao was in focus.
Like 2010 elections, in October-November 2005 too, Lalu Prasad's son campaigned. Five years back, Lalu's elder son Tej Pratap was described as "uncrowned Prince" in newspapers. This time, his younger son, Tejasawi, campaigned. He was, thus, called the "Yuvraj" of RJD. AICC general secretary Rahul Gandhi, who addressed 17 election meetings this year, remained absent in 2005 in Bihar.
Like in the 2005 elections, this time 2010, too, Muslims voted heavily. According to the reports of 2005, Muslims voted in large numbers in Kishanganj, Darbhanga, Sitamarhi, East and West Champaran, Saharsa, Madhepura, Sheohar and Supaul.