Modi govt to face its first no-trust vote on Friday, expects easy win

NEW DELHI: On the opening day of the monsoon session on Wednesday, Lok Sabha Speaker Sumitra Mahajan accepted an opposition motion for a no-trust vote that the government ought to win with ease but which should see a riveting clash on issues ranging from farm distress, lynching and polarisation. The vote will take place on Friday.
The change in the government's stand — it had stonewalled the demand in the budget session — took the opposition by surprise as it had expected a stand-off.The government's decision stemmed from its confidence about its numbers and was based on the assessment that another washed-out session would allow the opposition to argue that BJP was spooked by fears of defections despite its majority.
Opposition circles maintained that the choice of the day for the duel was influenced by a Trinamool Congress rally over the weekend which would have required the presence of Mamata Banerjee's 34 members in Kolkata. Soon, however, TMC chief Mamata Banerjee issued a whip directing her flock to be in Delhi on the day of the trial of strength.
NCP MPs also have a function to attend in Mumbai on Saturday but will be present in the House now.
BJP managers said the no-trust motion — the first to be faced by the Modi government — will be defeated convincingly as NDA commands a tally of 315 MPs (including the Speaker) in a House with a current strength of 535 and 268 as the halfway mark. BJP's strength in the House is 273, including two nominated members. The final NDA number could vary slightly as some BJP MPs are in dissident mode while a few are unwell or abroad.

The stated strength of the opposition is 222, including 63 of Congress-led UPA, 37 of AIADMK, 34 of TMC, 20 of BJD, 16 of TDP and 11 of TRS. Mahajan accepted the notice given by the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) going by the submission being the earliest even as other parties, including Congress, did so too.
The ruling coalition is determined to use the no-trust vote to try and deflate opposition claims of unity and is working on a scenario where abstentions in the non-NDA side make its total below par. It is also hoping to secure the neutrality, if not outright support, of parties like BJD, TRS and AIADMK.
The opposition, though aware that numbers are against it, is looking to use the debate to attack the Modi government over several issues and showcase unity among major non-NDA parties. "We will raise several issues such as price rise, rising intolerance, poor implementation of GST, harm caused by demonetisation and the distress caused to farmers and inadequacy of the new MSP regime," said a leader.
Launching an attack on Modi in a televised debate which should fetch eyeballs nationally may have psychological benefits too.
Congress functionaries said the debate will see a sharp and focused attack on the government for creating disharmony and unfulfilled promises on combating corruption, boosting the economy and delivering on jobs. Major initiatives like hikes in support prices for farm produce and an ambitious health insurance scheme will also come in for criticism as inadequate and only a late knee-jerk reaction to public woes. An intervention by Congress president Rahul Gandhi will be much anticipated.
Parliamentary affairs minister Ananth Kumar said the government was prepared to face the motion. "The entire country has confidence in PM Narendra Modi and let that be clear once and for all (doodh ka doodh, pani ka pani ho jaye)," he said.
According to BJP sources, unlike the situation in the budget session, the party is confident of taking on Congress, which took a clear stand right in the beginning of this session with its own notice, unlike the last time when it delayed before joining TDP and others. "Earlier, a party with a handful of MPs sought a no-trust," said a BJP leader. The government also feels that with the motion out of the way, Parliament, including the Rajya Sabha, would function smoothly while Modi would use the occasion to showcase his government's record.
Opposition benches had expected the government to take a while before agreeing to a no-trust motion and use the issue till then as ammunition. But government managers were keen to avoid giving the impression that they were running away from a floor test despite a large majority.
BJP plans to paint Congress and other opposition parties as an opportunistic alliance driven by no ideology other than ousting Modi. NDA speakers can be expected to highlight contrasts from the UPA tenure by way of improved pace of development and strong measures to clean up the economy by promoting digitisation, insolvency laws, linking welfare benefits to Aadhaar and direct transfers and measures to boost farm incomes.
Rising stridency over "communal" issues — which has seen BJP accuse Rahul Gandhi of stating that Congress is a "Muslim party" at a meeting with Muslim intellectuals, drawing a sharp response denying the remark and an assertion that the party stands for the last man in the line mark — can be expected to be reflected in the House in full measure.
BJP does not expect any ripples in its own camp as despite its rumblings, the Shiv Sena is expected to go along with the government. The party has been making threatening noises but is not expected to take a step that will sever its connections with the NDA without any lifeline in Maharashtra.